Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Dukla Praha to Andrův stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 3W 3D 4L at Andrův stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have recorded 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Dukla Praha have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sigma Olomouc at 1.10 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 71% versus Dukla Praha 14%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Dukla Praha 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.62 xG and Dukla Praha 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.165 / defence 1.216 | Dukla Praha attack 0.598 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.043. Data: 37 Sigma Olomouc games / 7 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 58% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 17%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Dukla Praha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Dukla Praha 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 58% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.62 / Dukla Praha 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.165 / def 1.216 | Dukla Praha attack 0.598 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dukla Praha xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 58% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.06
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.38
0.76
Dukla Praha xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
29.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.76 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dukla Praha's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Dukla Praha in 14%.
Defensively: Dukla Praha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Dukla Praha away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.33 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Dukla Praha 2-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 100%, Dukla Praha 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Sigma Olomouc) and 0% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 33%; Dukla Praha in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 0% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 0% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Dukla Praha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Dukla Praha 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.62 xG and Dukla Praha 0.76 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.17 / defence 1.22 against Dukla Praha attack 0.60 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 58% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 17%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Dukla Praha 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.