Plzen 1-4 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovácko have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Slovácko's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plzen, 1 for Slovácko and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Slovácko — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus Slovácko 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 67% | Slovácko 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.14 xG and Slovácko 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.310 / defence 1.101 | Slovácko attack 0.724 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.122. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Plzen games / 44 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 66% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 15%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Slovácko 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 70% | Slovácko 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 66% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Plzen 2.14 / Slovácko 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.310 / def 1.101 | Slovácko attack 0.724 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Plzen (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Slovácko xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovácko kick off?
Plzen vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Plzen 1 - 4 Slovácko.
Where is Plzen vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovácko part of?
Plzen vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 66% chance of winning, Slovácko a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plzen and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.72x) against Plzen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.13
15%
6.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.03
0.90
Slovácko xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
6.84
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
57.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Plzen and 0.90 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plzen come into this having played 48 games, going 26W 8D 14L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.48 PPG from 48 outings (19W 14D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Plzen against 1.48 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Plzen's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 26W 8D 14L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 19W 14D 15L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovácko away?
Plzen's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.87 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Slovácko in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 3-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Plzen
3
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 3, Slovácko have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Slovácko 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 65%, Slovácko 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Plzen) and 48% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Plzen's recent matches and 39% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Plzen's matches and 48% of Slovácko's.
Do Plzen and Slovácko tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Plzen 1-4 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.14 xG and Slovácko 0.90 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Slovácko outscored their 0.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.31 / defence 1.10 against Slovácko attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 66% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 15%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 67%, Slovácko 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.79 PPG, Slovácko 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.