Plzen 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Plzen welcome Pardubice to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Plzen have won 2, Pardubice 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 4–0 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plzen trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Pardubice trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 44% versus Pardubice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 47% | Pardubice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.93 xG and Pardubice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.121 / defence 0.886 | Pardubice attack 0.982 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.225. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Plzen games / 31 Pardubice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plzen 57% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 21%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Plzen 30% | Pardubice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 57% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 1.93 / Pardubice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.121 / def 0.886 | Pardubice attack 0.982 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Plzen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pardubice xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Pardubice kick off?
Plzen vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen 2 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Plzen vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Pardubice part of?
Plzen vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 57% chance of winning, Pardubice a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
Record (2 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.12) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.55
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.99
1.07
Pardubice xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
33.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Plzen and 1.07 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 26W 8D 2L from 36 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 17L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 16W 2D 0L from 18 games — 2.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 6W 1D 11L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.17 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 26W 8D 2L in their last 36 games (2.39 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Pardubice away?
Plzen's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.78 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Plzen or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Pardubice in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
2
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Pardubice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Pardubice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 44%, Pardubice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Plzen and 72% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Plzen's games and 67% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plzen's matches and 72% of Pardubice's.
Do Plzen and Pardubice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Pardubice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.93 xG and Pardubice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Pardubice attack 0.98 / defence 1.32, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 57% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 21%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 47%, Pardubice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.