Plzen 4-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 5). Kick-off is Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plzen at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FK Jablonec have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FK Jablonec away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.90 PPG, FK Jablonec 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Plzen's games and 60% of FK Jablonec's (from Plzen's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Plzen hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for FK Jablonec and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2024, ended Plzen 3–2 FK Jablonec — a Plzen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Plzen and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus FK Jablonec 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 58% | FK Jablonec 48%). Note also that FK Jablonec surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Plzen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.370 / defence 1.062 | FK Jablonec attack 0.981 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.370 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Plzen's last 60 games and FK Jablonec's last 60.
Result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.07 | Draw 4.18 | FK Jablonec 3.61. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Plzen 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 70% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Plzen 1.72 / FK Jablonec 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.370 / def 1.062 | FK Jablonec attack 0.981 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FK Jablonec xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 4 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 5) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 48% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 60 games and FK Jablonec's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.18
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.25
FK Jablonec xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
5%
20.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Plzen and 1.25 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 43W 12D 14L from 69 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 21L across 69 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 24W 4D 6L from their last 34 home games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 10W 10D 14L across their last 34 away games, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Plzen (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 43W 12D 14L in their last 69 games (2.04 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 28W 20D 21L in their last 69 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.24 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: FK Jablonec 2-3 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 53%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Plzen) and 44% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Plzen's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Plzen's recent games and 44% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Plzen's recent matches and 71% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 4-1 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 1.25 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.37 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, FK Jablonec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.