Plzen 6-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 7W 1D 0L from 8 home games — 2.75 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Bohemians 1905 in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 43% and Bohemians 1905 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 50% | Bohemians 1905 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.28 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.140 / defence 0.906 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.744 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.328. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Plzen games / 14 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 69% | Draw 18% | Bohemians 1905 13%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Bohemians 1905 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 62% | Bohemians 1905 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 69% | Draw 18% | Bohemians 1905 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Plzen 2.28 / Bohemians 1905 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.140 / def 0.906 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.744 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Plzen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bohemians 1905 xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Plzen 6 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 69% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.14) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
69%
1.46
18%
5.51
13%
7.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.18
0.90
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.51
18%
Draw
7.56
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
10%
9.81
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
1%
74.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Plzen and 0.90 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 14 games, going 10W 2D 2L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 6W 1D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Plzen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.50 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 79%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 10W 2D 2L in their last 14 games (2.29 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Plzen's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.71 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Plzen or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 57%, Bohemians 1905 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Plzen and 86% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Plzen's games and 71% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Plzen's matches and 86% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Plzen and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 6-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.28 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.90 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.74 / defence 1.46, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 69% | Draw 18% | Bohemians 1905 13%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, Bohemians 1905 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.