Pardubice 2-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.83 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec have collected 0.17 PPG across 6 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Pardubice. A 0.66 PPG lead over Slovan Liberec (0.83 vs 0.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 83% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 83% versus Slovan Liberec 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 83% | Slovan Liberec 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.59 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.078 / defence 1.117 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.717 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.155. Data: 6 Pardubice games / 6 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 22%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Slovan Liberec 4.55. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 67% | Slovan Liberec 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Pardubice 1.59 / Slovan Liberec 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.078 / def 1.117 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.717 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Slovan Liberec xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Pardubice 2 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 53% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pardubice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.17 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pardubice's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.72x) against Pardubice's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.98
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.52
0.93
Slovan Liberec xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.93 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 5L across 6 games — 0.17 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pardubice by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.17 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Slovan Liberec in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slovan Liberec have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 0-4 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 83%, Slovan Liberec 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Pardubice) and 17% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Pardubice's recent matches and 17% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Pardubice's recent games and 17% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Slovan Liberec finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.59 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.93 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 22%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 83%, Slovan Liberec 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovan Liberec scored 2 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.