Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Mlada Boleslav, 0.90 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 70% of Sigma Olomouc's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–4 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Sigma Olomouc 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 55% | Sigma Olomouc 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mlada Boleslav surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Sigma Olomouc have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sigma Olomouc surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Mlada Boleslav recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.66 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.055 / defence 1.152 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.927 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.205. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 54 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 54.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 45% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.20 | Draw 3.91 | Sigma Olomouc 3.44. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 70% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 45% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.66 / Sigma Olomouc 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.055 / def 1.152 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.927 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sigma Olomouc xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 45% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.93x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 54 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.91
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.94
1.29
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.29 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 18W 17D 21L from 56 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 18L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.39 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 10W 11D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 10W 9D 9L across their last 28 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.48 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.46 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Mlada Boleslav on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 64%, Sigma Olomouc 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mlada Boleslav) and 46% (Sigma Olomouc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 57% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 46% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 79% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.66 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 45% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 55%, Sigma Olomouc 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.27 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.