Karviná 0-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Městský Stadión this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Karviná are significantly better at Městský Stadión than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Karviná register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Sigma Olomouc hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sigma Olomouc have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 60% and Sigma Olomouc 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 53% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.51 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.005 / defence 1.231 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.091 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.179. Data: 15 Karviná games / 45 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 36% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 40%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Sigma Olomouc 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 71% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 36% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Karviná 1.51 / Sigma Olomouc 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.005 / def 1.231 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.091 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Karviná 0 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 36% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Karviná and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.09x) against Karviná's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
36%
2.74
24%
4.19
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.09
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Karviná and 1.58 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 1D 10L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Karviná are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sigma Olomouc's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.60 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Karviná's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.43 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
6
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Karviná, 71% for Sigma Olomouc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Karviná) and 43% (Sigma Olomouc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Karviná's games and 71% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Karviná's recent games and 43% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 0-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.51 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 36% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 40%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 53%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.