Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karviná at 41%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Karviná welcome Hradec Králové to Town Stadium Karvina. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karviná register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hradec Králové in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Karviná, 4 for Hradec Králové and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Karviná winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 66% versus Hradec Králové 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 68% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.170 / defence 0.985 | Hradec Králové attack 1.136 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.269. Data: 45 Karviná games / 45 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 41% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 31%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 60% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 41% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Karviná 1.65 / Hradec Králové 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.170 / def 0.985 | Hradec Králové attack 1.136 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Karviná (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hradec Králové xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Karviná 4 - 3 Hradec Králové.
Where is Karviná vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Hradec Králové part of?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 41% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Karviná and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Karviná 2W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 4W.
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Karviná's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.62
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.07
1.42
Hradec Králové xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Karviná and 1.42 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 9D 20L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.47 PPG from 47 outings (19W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 1.34 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Karviná's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.34 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Hradec Králové away?
Karviná's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.39 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Karviná or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Karviná have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 56%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Karviná) and 61% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 26% of games; Hradec Králové in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Karviná's recent matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Karviná's matches and 61% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Karviná and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Hradec Králové 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Hradec Králové 4-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 1.42 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Hradec Králové attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 41% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 31%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 68%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.34 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.