Karviná 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karviná at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Karviná, 0.50 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 58% versus Bohemians 1905 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 50% | Bohemians 1905 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.893 / defence 1.426 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.618 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.156. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Karviná games / 26 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 3.70. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Karviná 80% | Bohemians 1905 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Karviná 1.41 / Bohemians 1905 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.893 / def 1.426 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.618 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Karviná (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Karviná 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Karviná and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 in?
Karviná (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.62x) against Karviná's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.73
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.43
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Karviná and 1.02 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 26 games, going 2W 7D 17L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 0.88 PPG from 26 outings (6W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Karviná against 0.88 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 0W 6D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.46 points per game from 13 outings (1W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.19 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 7D 17L in their last 26 games (0.50 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Karviná's home record (0.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.46 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
3
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Karviná, 54% for Bohemians 1905 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Karviná and 62% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Karviná's games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Karviná's matches and 62% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Karviná and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 27, as Karviná and Bohemians 1905 drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.89 / defence 1.43 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.62 / defence 1.43, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 50%, Bohemians 1905 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.50 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.