Hradec Králové 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hradec Králové at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Hradec Králové have won 0, Bohemians 1905 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Hradec Králové 1–2 Bohemians 1905 — a Bohemians 1905 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Bohemians 1905 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Bohemians 1905 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.965 / defence 1.086 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.184. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 49 games and Bohemians 1905's last 49.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 28%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.08 | Draw 4.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.63. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.68 / Bohemians 1905 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.965 / def 1.086 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bohemians 1905 xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.96x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 49 games and Bohemians 1905's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.12
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.22 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 18W 11D 24L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 21L across 53 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 10W 4D 12L from their last 26 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 11W 3D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.28 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.31 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won Bohemians 1905 0-3 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 77% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 20, as Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 28%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.