FK Jablonec 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Wednesday 9 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 48% versus Sparta Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 39% | Sparta Praha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.00 xG and Sparta Praha 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.732 / defence 1.097 | Sparta Praha attack 0.891 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.168. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 FK Jablonec games / 23 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Praha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Sparta Praha 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG FK Jablonec 1.00 / Sparta Praha 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.732 / def 1.097 | Sparta Praha attack 0.891 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sparta Praha xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 9 March 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 32% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (0.89x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
32%
3.16
30%
3.39
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.14
1.14
Sparta Praha xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.14 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 4W 10D 9L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 15W 5D 3L from 23 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 10D 9L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 15W 5D 3L in their last 23 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.27 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.64 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 46%, Sparta Praha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (FK Jablonec) and 64% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 27% of games; Sparta Praha in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 54% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 64% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 22, as FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.00 xG and Sparta Praha 1.14 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Sparta Praha attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 39%, Sparta Praha 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.