FK Jablonec vs Plzen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Strelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Strelnice — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FK Jablonec 1.40 PPG, Plzen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for FK Jablonec.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–5 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Plzen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 38% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.79 xG and Plzen 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / defence 0.842 | Plzen attack 1.365 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Plzen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 FK Jablonec games / 35 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 23% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Plzen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FK Jablonec 60% | Plzen 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 23% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG FK Jablonec 1.79 / Plzen 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / def 0.842 | Plzen attack 1.365 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Plzen xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 43% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 3 | Plzen 7W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.00) and Plzen's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
43%
2.33
23%
4.43
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.38
1.59
Plzen xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
9%
11.41
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.59 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 19W 8D 13L from 40 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 9L across 40 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.62 PPG, Plzen on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 5D 3L from 18 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.78 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Plzen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 games (1.62 PPG), while Plzen have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.94 PPG; Plzen away: 1.61 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 56%, Plzen 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FK Jablonec) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Plzen in 39%; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 39% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plzen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.