FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FK Jablonec 3W, Mlada Boleslav 5W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / defence 1.258 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.876 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 43 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Mlada Boleslav 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG FK Jablonec 1.57 / Mlada Boleslav 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / def 1.258 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.876 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Mlada Boleslav xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 39% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 5W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.88x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.51
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.99
1.42
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.42 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 22W 9D 17L from 48 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 16L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.48 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 22W 9D 17L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 16D 16L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.12 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 58% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.