České Budějovice 2-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Zlin at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: České Budějovice 1.10 PPG, Zlin 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, České Budějovice have won 0, Zlin 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
České Budějovice trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zlin trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 57% versus Zlin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 57% | Zlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.90 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.713 / defence 1.173 | Zlin attack 0.688 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.344. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 České Budějovice games / 40 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 27% | Draw 36% | Zlin 37%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Zlin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Zlin 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 27% | Draw 36% | Zlin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG České Budějovice 0.90 / Zlin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.713 / def 1.173 | Zlin attack 0.688 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Zlin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Zlin xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Zlin kick off?
České Budějovice vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Zlin?
České Budějovice 2 - 2 Zlin.
Where is České Budějovice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Zlin part of?
České Budějovice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 27% chance of winning, Zlin a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both České Budějovice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Zlin 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Zlin in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.71x the league average against Zlin's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
27%
3.69
36%
2.76
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
1.99
1.08
Zlin xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.9 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.08 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 19L across 42 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 1.12 PPG, Zlin on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 9D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Zlin in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 14D 19L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Zlin away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.48 PPG; Zlin away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Zlin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
5
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Zlin?
From 7 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Zlin have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Zlin 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 52%, Zlin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (České Budějovice) and 43% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 33% of games; Zlin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 52% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of České Budějovice's recent games and 43% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Zlin tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zlin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice and Zlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice and Zlin finished level at 2-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.90 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Zlin attack 0.69 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 27% | Draw 36% | Zlin 37%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 57%, Zlin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.12 PPG, Zlin 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.