České Budějovice 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 42%, yet in-form České Budějovice provide a compelling counter-argument — this České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.25 points per game. Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. České Budějovice's 1.00 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.25 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 50% versus Slovan Liberec 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (České Budějovice 50% | Slovan Liberec 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.15 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.827 / defence 1.255 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.813 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.364. Data: 4 České Budějovice games / 4 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 31% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 42%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Slovan Liberec 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form České Budějovice (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 50% | Slovan Liberec 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 31% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG České Budějovice 1.15 / Slovan Liberec 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.827 / def 1.255 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.813 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Slovan Liberec xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
České Budějovice 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 31% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-L-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.83) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.81x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.78
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.54
1.39
Slovan Liberec xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.39 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours České Budějovice by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Slovan Liberec 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (České Budějovice) and 25% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 25% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of České Budějovice's recent games and 25% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as České Budějovice defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.15 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.39 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 31% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 42%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 50%, Slovan Liberec 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, České Budějovice arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. České Budějovice conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.