České Budějovice 3-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Slovácko at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 5W 1D 2L from 8 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko away from home this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Slovácko's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. České Budějovice register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for České Budějovice, 1 for Slovácko and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 60% versus Slovácko 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 60% | Slovácko 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.45 xG and Slovácko 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.028 / defence 1.093 | Slovácko attack 1.190 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.280. Data: 15 České Budějovice games / 15 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 34% | Draw 24% | Slovácko 43%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Slovácko 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 62% | Slovácko 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 34% | Draw 24% | Slovácko 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG České Budějovice 1.45 / Slovácko 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.028 / def 1.093 | Slovácko attack 1.190 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Slovácko xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovácko kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
České Budějovice 3 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovácko part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 34% chance of winning, Slovácko a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.03x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
34%
2.98
24%
4.23
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.12
1.67
Slovácko xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
6%
15.75
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.67 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 3D 7L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko's form line: 11W 2D 2L from 15 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 2.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 11W 2D 2L in their last 15 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovácko away?
České Budějovice's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 2.00 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.75 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Slovácko in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — České Budějovice at 62%, Slovácko at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for České Budějovice and 75% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of České Budějovice's games and 75% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of České Budějovice's matches and 75% of Slovácko's.
Do České Budějovice and Slovácko tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as České Budějovice defy the odds to beat Slovácko 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Slovácko 3-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.45 xG and Slovácko 1.67 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Slovácko attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 34% | Draw 24% | Slovácko 43%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 60%, Slovácko 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with České Budějovice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.