České Budějovice 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as České Budějovice welcome Plzen to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.60 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. České Budějovice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for České Budějovice, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 58% versus Plzen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 56% | Plzen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.35 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.926 / defence 1.045 | Plzen attack 1.113 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.379. Data: 34 České Budějovice games / 33 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 32% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 32% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG České Budějovice 1.35 / Plzen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.926 / def 1.045 | Plzen attack 1.113 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Plzen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Plzen kick off?
České Budějovice vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
České Budějovice 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is České Budějovice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Plzen part of?
České Budějovice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 32% chance of winning, Plzen a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both České Budějovice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Record (2 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.93) and Plzen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
32%
3.10
24%
4.12
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.96
1.60
Plzen xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
6%
15.41
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.60 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 10W 11D 15L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 26W 8D 2L from 36 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 6D 2L from 18 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.81 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Plzen have gone 26W 8D 2L in their last 36 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.72 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Plzen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
0
Draws
8
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Plzen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 61%, Plzen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (České Budějovice) and 33% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 44% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of České Budějovice's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Plzen tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plzen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out České Budějovice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 0-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.35 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Plzen attack 1.11 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 32% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 56%, Plzen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.