Dukla Praha 2-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Dukla Praha welcome Sigma Olomouc to Stadion Juliska. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dukla Praha have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Juliska — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sigma Olomouc — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dukla Praha, 2 for Sigma Olomouc and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.764 / defence 1.018 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.016 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Dukla Praha games / 45 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 22% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 43%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Sigma Olomouc 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 50% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 22% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Dukla Praha 0.87 / Sigma Olomouc 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.764 / def 1.018 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.016 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sigma Olomouc xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Dukla Praha 2 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 22% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
22%
4.45
34%
2.92
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.16
1.29
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.45
22%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.9 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.29 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha come into this having played 50 games, going 9W 18D 23L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.42 PPG from 50 outings (19W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dukla Praha's home form reads 6W 7D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.28 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 9W 18D 23L in their last 50 games (0.90 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.09 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Dukla Praha 2-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 56%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dukla Praha) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 26% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 16, as Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dukla Praha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 22% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 43%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.