Bohemians 1905 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bohemians 1905 are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Zlin and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 1–4 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zlin trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 56% and Zlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Zlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.27 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.990 / defence 1.068 | Zlin attack 0.804 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.196. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Bohemians 1905 games / 40 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 65% | Draw 19% | Zlin 16%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Zlin 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 65% | Draw 19% | Zlin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1905 2.27 / Zlin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.990 / def 1.068 | Zlin attack 0.804 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Zlin xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 65% chance of winning, Zlin a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 0 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.99) and Zlin's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.31
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.30
1.03
Zlin xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
61.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.03 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 19W 8D 18L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 21L across 45 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians 1905 by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 1W 9D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.13 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.36 PPG; Zlin away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 64%, Zlin 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 59% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians 1905's games and 59% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 59% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 11, as Bohemians 1905 and Zlin drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.27 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 65% | Draw 19% | Zlin 16%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Zlin 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.