Bohemians 1905 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.90 PPG versus Slovácko's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Slovácko 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 4–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slovácko trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 60% versus Slovácko 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 55% | Slovácko 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.45 xG and Slovácko 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.977 / defence 1.242 | Slovácko attack 0.898 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.233. Data: 54 Bohemians 1905 games / 53 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 34%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Slovácko 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.45 / Slovácko 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.977 / def 1.242 | Slovácko attack 0.898 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Slovácko xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 37% chance of winning, Slovácko a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.98) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
37%
2.67
29%
3.50
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
Slovácko xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.38 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 13D 24L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko's form line: 32W 10D 16L from 58 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 11W 7D 11L from 29 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.52 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 32W 10D 16L in their last 58 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.31 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Slovácko have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 62%, Slovácko 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Bohemians 1905 and 69% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bohemians 1905's games and 62% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 69% of Slovácko's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.45 xG and Slovácko 1.38 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Slovácko attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 34%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 55%, Slovácko 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.