Bohemians 1905 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pardubice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bohemians 1905, 1.30 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Pardubice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 61% versus Pardubice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Pardubice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.67 xG and Pardubice 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.966 / defence 1.342 | Pardubice attack 0.988 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.369. Data: 52 Bohemians 1905 games / 52 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 40%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 80% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.67 / Pardubice 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.966 / def 1.342 | Pardubice attack 0.988 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Pardubice xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Pardubice a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.99x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
34%
2.91
25%
3.97
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.48
1.81
Pardubice xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.89
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.81 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 14D 24L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.98 PPG from 57 outings (14W 14D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.98 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 9W 8D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (8W 3D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.09 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 14D 24L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 14D 29L in their last 57 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Pardubice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.25 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Pardubice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 64%, Pardubice 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Bohemians 1905 and 71% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians 1905's games and 64% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 71% of Pardubice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Pardubice 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.67 xG and Pardubice 1.81 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Pardubice attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 40%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Pardubice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.25 PPG, Pardubice 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.