Bohemians 1905 1-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 45%, yet in-form Bohemians 1905 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
České Budějovice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bohemians 1905. A 1.30 PPG lead over České Budějovice (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus České Budějovice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 57% | České Budějovice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG and České Budějovice 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.068 / defence 1.216 | České Budějovice attack 0.974 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.401. Data: 35 Bohemians 1905 games / 35 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 45%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | České Budějovice 2.22. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | České Budějovice 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.34 / České Budějovice 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.068 / def 1.216 | České Budějovice attack 0.974 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.66
České Budějovice xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.07) and České Budějovice's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.97x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
31%
3.26
25%
4.06
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.00
1.66
České Budějovice xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
6%
17.15
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.66 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 16L across 37 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.11 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 1W 7D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.27 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or České Budějovice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.39 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, České Budějovice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 56%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; České Budějovice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bohemians 1905's games and 56% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 50% of České Budějovice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG and České Budějovice 1.66 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against České Budějovice attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 45%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 57%, České Budějovice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG, České Budějovice 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.