Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Sparta Praha travel to Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Praha stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Praha — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Baník Ostrava's 10% rate and Sparta Praha's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Sparta Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Baník Ostrava's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–5 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 32% versus Sparta Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 41% | Sparta Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.09 xG and Sparta Praha 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.846 / defence 1.060 | Sparta Praha attack 1.219 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Baník Ostrava games / 40 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 47%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 2.13. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 10% | Sparta Praha 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.09 / Sparta Praha 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.846 / def 1.060 | Sparta Praha attack 1.219 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 27% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 6W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (0.85) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
27%
3.67
26%
3.81
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.59
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.50
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.50 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 8D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.07 PPG from 44 outings (28W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.71 points per game from 21 outings (11W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 8D 24L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 28W 7D 9L in their last 44 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.29 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when Sparta Praha won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baník Ostrava 24% BTTS, Sparta Praha 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baník Ostrava) and 57% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 52%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 38% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 57% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích, Regular Season - 11, as Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.09 xG and Sparta Praha 1.50 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Sparta Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 47%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 41%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.