Artis 0-4 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Sparta Praha travel to Stadion SK Lisen to take on Artis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Artis — All Games: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.17 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis's home record at Stadion SK Lisen: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Czech Liga appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Praha stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Praha's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Praha — 1.73 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.17). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Artis 67% and Sparta Praha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Artis 67% | Sparta Praha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.49 xG and Sparta Praha 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.899 / defence 1.419 | Sparta Praha attack 0.822 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.340. Data: 4 Artis games / 34 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 36% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: Artis 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Praha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Artis 100% | Sparta Praha 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion SK Lisen • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 36% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Artis 1.49 / Sparta Praha 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.899 / def 1.419 | Sparta Praha attack 0.822 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sparta Praha xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Artis vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadion SK Lisen.
What was the final score in Artis vs Sparta Praha?
Artis 0 - 4 Sparta Praha.
Where is Artis vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SK Lisen.
What competition is Artis vs Sparta Praha part of?
Artis vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 36% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Artis and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Sparta Praha in?
Artis (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
36%
2.79
25%
4.03
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Artis xG
Total xG
3.05
1.56
Sparta Praha xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Artis and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Artis and 1.56 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Artis come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 1D 5L for 0.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.83 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Artis's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Artis are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sparta Praha in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.00 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Artis
0
Draws
1
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Sparta Praha?
From 1 meetings on record, Artis have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Artis and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Artis 0-4 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Artis and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Artis at 100%, Sparta Praha at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Artis and 33% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 33%; Sparta Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Artis's games and 33% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Artis vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 33% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Artis and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Artis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Artis 0-4 at Stadion SK Lisen, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Artis 1.49 xG and Sparta Praha 1.56 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Artis fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Artis attack 0.90 / defence 1.42 against Sparta Praha attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Artis 36% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Artis 67%, Sparta Praha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Artis's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Artis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.