Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Wuhan Three Towns welcome Shandong Luneng to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wuhan Three Towns 2.10 PPG, Shandong Luneng 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wuhan Three Towns, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 0.95 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.844 / defence 0.828 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.916 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.409. Shandong Luneng's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Wuhan Three Towns games / 40 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 37%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Shandong Luneng 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Shandong Luneng 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 0.95 / Shandong Luneng 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.844 / def 0.828 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.916 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Shandong Luneng xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 30% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng?
Record (4 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 0W | Draws 3 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (0.84) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.03
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Shandong Luneng xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.07 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 39W 12D 13L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 41W 13D 10L from 64 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02 PPG, Shandong Luneng on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.97 PPG from 32 outings (19W 6D 7L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 14W 10D 8L from 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's scoring rate against Shandong Luneng's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 games (2.02 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.97 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Wuhan Three Towns
5
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shandong Luneng 3-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 53% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 0.95 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.92 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 37%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG, Shandong Luneng 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.