Tianjin Teda 3-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 12 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Tianjin Teda. A 0.70 PPG lead over Shijiazhuang Y. J. (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2022, ended 2–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 58% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 45% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.41 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.869 / defence 1.089 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.918 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.145. Data: 23 Tianjin Teda games / 23 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.41 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.869 / def 1.089 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.918 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 43% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.92x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.77
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.55
1.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.15 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 8D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.00 PPG from 31 outings (7W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.00 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 4W 3D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Tianjin Teda, 80% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Tianjin Teda and 67% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Tianjin Teda's games and 80% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-0 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.41 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 45%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.03 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.