Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai encounter.

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Analysis

Changchun Yatai make the trip to Longquanyi Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Tuesday 15 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Changchun Yatai arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 0 for Changchun Yatai and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 2–1 Changchun Yatai — a Sichuan Jiuniu win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 57% | Changchun Yatai 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.68 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.988 / defence 1.438 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.865 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.507. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.438 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Changchun Yatai's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 36 games and Changchun Yatai's last 36.

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 42%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.99 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 80% (last 10 away games).

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