Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 26 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 2W 3D 5L at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 0 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 55% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Beijing Guoan 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.14 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.692 / defence 1.277 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.970 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.336. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 50 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 25% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 48%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Beijing Guoan 2.08. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.

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