Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Shijiazhuang Y. J. take on Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.78 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.774 / defence 0.978 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.711 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 0.892 / away 1.249. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 3 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 42% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.85 | Draw 2.38 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.23. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.65 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 42% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 35% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.78 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.774 / def 0.978 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.711 / def 1.128 | league avg home 0.892 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 26% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 31% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.77) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.81
42%
2.35
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.65
0.87
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.35
42%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 16.7 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.87 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Guangzhou Evergrande FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-3 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.78 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 42% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Guangzhou Evergrande FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.