Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Shenzhen Ruby FC take on Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 18 July 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shenzhen Ruby FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Shenzhen Ruby FC's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.07 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.956 / defence 1.167 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.814 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 0.952 / away 1.078. Data: 5 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 5 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 32% | Draw 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 32% | Draw 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.07 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.956 / def 1.167 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.814 / def 1.179 | league avg home 0.952 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 32% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.81x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
38%
2.66
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.10
1.02
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.02 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Early Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 40% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 40%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 40% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 40% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shenzhen Ruby FC edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.07 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 32% | Draw 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shijiazhuang Y. J. shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.