Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yuexiushan Stadium plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Chongqing Lifan in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 11 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 games at Yuexiushan Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Chongqing Lifan have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 5L across 6 road games this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Shenzhen Ruby FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Chongqing Lifan (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shenzhen Ruby FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chongqing Lifan half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% versus Chongqing Lifan 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shenzhen Ruby FC 69% | Chongqing Lifan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.837 / defence 0.929 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.645 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.318. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 13 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 44% | Draw 35% | Chongqing Lifan 20%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Chongqing Lifan 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Chongqing Lifan 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 44% | Draw 35% | Chongqing Lifan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 / Chongqing Lifan 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.837 / def 0.929 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.645 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Chongqing Lifan xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 11 August 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 44% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Lifan 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.84) and Chongqing Lifan's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Lifan's attack (0.65x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
44%
2.25
35%
2.85
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.05
0.79
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0.79 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 6W 3D 4L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Lifan's form line: 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chongqing Lifan.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Chongqing Lifan have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.15 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 2, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2021, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Chongqing Lifan.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%, Chongqing Lifan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 50% (Chongqing Lifan).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Chongqing Lifan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Chongqing Lifan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 67% of Chongqing Lifan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 50% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shenzhen Ruby FC edge out Chongqing Lifan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Chongqing Lifan 2-1 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.79 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.65 / defence 1.41, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 44% | Draw 35% | Chongqing Lifan 20%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 69%, Chongqing Lifan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.