SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Championship Round - 5 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this season: 7W 1D 1L from 9 home games — 2.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.11 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 33% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 44% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.187 / defence 0.928 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 26%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.85. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 11% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 78%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.187 / def 0.928 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.030 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 47% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.19x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.62
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.94
1.23
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.23 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 10W 5D 3L from 18 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 5L across 18 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SHANGHAI SIPG on 1.94 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 7W 1D 1L from 9 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 67%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.44 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 11%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 78% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 78% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 78% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.19 / defence 0.93 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 26%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 44%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 1.94 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.