SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Shanghai Shenhua travel to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to take on SHANGHAI SIPG. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.40 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 5–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% versus Shanghai Shenhua 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.40 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.506 / defence 1.064 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.206 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.386. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.506 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.686 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 37 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.13. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.40 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.506 / def 1.064 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.206 / def 0.686 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Shanghai Shenhua xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.51x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.33
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.17
1.78
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
5%
19.52
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.78 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 39W 11D 14L from 64 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 17L across 64 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 19W 6D 7L from 32 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 13W 10D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.19 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Shanghai Shenhua in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 games (2.00 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 29W 18D 17L in their last 64 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.97 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.53 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 44% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 56% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.40 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.78 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.51 / defence 1.06 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.21 / defence 0.69, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.