SHANGHAI SIPG 5-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: SHANGHAI SIPG have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Qingdao Jonoon have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 5–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 61% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 65% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.579 / defence 0.937 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.649 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.335. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.579 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 49 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 75% | Draw 16% | Qingdao Jonoon 9%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Qingdao Jonoon 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 90% | Qingdao Jonoon 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 75% | Draw 16% | Qingdao Jonoon 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 52% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.579 / def 0.937 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.649 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Qingdao Jonoon xG
52%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG 5 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 75% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.58x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.12
9%
11.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.41
0.81
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.12
16%
Draw
11.52
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
7%
13.44
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
1%
154.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.81 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 49 games, going 35W 9D 5L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.96 PPG from 49 outings (12W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.50 points per game from 24 outings (2W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.04 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 35W 9D 5L in their last 49 games (2.33 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 12W 11D 26L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.21 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 7 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 83%, Qingdao Jonoon 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 25% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 29% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 25% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.58 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.65 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 75% | Draw 16% | Qingdao Jonoon 9%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 65%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.