SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan meet at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.06 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.796 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.472. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 1 Beijing Guoan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 26% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 39%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Beijing Guoan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 26% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.06 / Beijing Guoan 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.796 / def 1.294 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 28 April 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 26% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.80x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
26%
3.90
35%
2.86
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.41
1.35
Beijing Guoan xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.35 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-1 on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Beijing Guoan 3-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.06 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 26% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 39%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.