Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Shanghai Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 8 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 5W 2D 3L at Shanghai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.63 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.974 / defence 0.976 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.216. Data: 31 Shanghai Shenhua games / 1 Qingdao Youth Island games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 52% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 23%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.35. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 52% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.63 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.974 / def 0.976 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Qingdao Youth Island xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 52% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.97) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.85x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.03
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.01 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 5 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.63 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 52% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 23%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.