Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Jinzhou Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 July 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Jinzhou Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium.
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shanghai Shenhua. A 1.80 PPG lead over Hebei Zhongji (2.10 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shanghai Shenhua lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 3–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 57% versus Hebei Zhongji 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 43% | Hebei Zhongji 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.109 / defence 0.764 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.748 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.146. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Shanghai Shenhua games / 22 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Draw 21% | Hebei Zhongji 9%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Hebei Zhongji 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Hebei Zhongji 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Jul 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Draw 21% | Hebei Zhongji 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 43% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 / Hebei Zhongji 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.109 / def 0.764 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.748 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Hebei Zhongji xG
43%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 10:30 on Thursday 7 July 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 70% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (3 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 2 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.11x the league average against Hebei Zhongji's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.75x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
70%
1.44
21%
4.76
9%
10.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.74
0.66
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
10.65
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
85.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.66 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 15W 9D 6L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (9W 5D 1L).
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.67 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.13 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 53%, Hebei Zhongji 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 47% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 40% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 47% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Hebei Zhongji 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hebei Zhongji 1-0 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.66 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.11 / defence 0.76 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Draw 21% | Hebei Zhongji 9%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 43%, Hebei Zhongji 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.