Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Aerbin make the trip to Kunshan Sports Center Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 19 July 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Shanghai Shenhua have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 0.60 PPG across 5 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Dalian Aerbin have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Shanghai Shenhua. A 1.00 PPG lead over Dalian Aerbin (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 80% versus Dalian Aerbin 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Dalian Aerbin 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.039 / defence 1.140 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.714 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 0.874 / away 0.948. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Shanghai Shenhua games / 5 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 19%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Dalian Aerbin 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 80% | Dalian Aerbin 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 / Dalian Aerbin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.039 / def 1.140 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.714 / def 1.386 | league avg home 0.874 / away 0.948 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Dalian Aerbin xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 44% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (1.04) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.71x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
44%
2.27
37%
2.70
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.03
0.77
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.77 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Dalian Aerbin in 20%.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Early Season
Dalian Aerbin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 80%, Dalian Aerbin 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 40% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 20% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 40% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Dalian Aerbin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Aerbin 3-2 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.77 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.71 / defence 1.39, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 19%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 40%, Dalian Aerbin 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Shanghai Shenhua scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.