Shandong Luneng 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shandong Luneng face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Qingdao Jonoon at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Shandong Luneng have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 73% and Qingdao Jonoon 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 75% | Qingdao Jonoon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.97 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.263 / defence 1.140 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.960 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.282. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Shandong Luneng games / 52 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 15% | Qingdao Jonoon 15%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.45 | Draw 6.67 | Qingdao Jonoon 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.97 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 100% | Qingdao Jonoon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 15% | Qingdao Jonoon 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 72% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.97 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.263 / def 1.140 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.960 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.97
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Qingdao Jonoon xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 69% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 15% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (7 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.26x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
69%
1.44
15%
6.53
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
4 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.97
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
4.37
1.40
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.44
69%
Home win
6.53
15%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
5%
19.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
1%
126.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.40 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 26W 11D 15L from 52 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 28L across 52 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 16W 6D 4L from 26 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 5D 19L across 26 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.25 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 26W 11D 15L in their last 52 games (1.71 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 28L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.08 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shandong Luneng at 73%, Qingdao Jonoon at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Shandong Luneng and 54% for Qingdao Jonoon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Shandong Luneng's games and 58% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.97 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.40 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.26 / defence 1.14 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.96 / defence 1.38, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 15% | Qingdao Jonoon 15%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 75%, Qingdao Jonoon 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.