Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 83%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Shandong Luneng welcome Meizhou Kejia to Jinjiang Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 8W 1D 1L at Jinjiang Sports Center — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinjiang Sports Center. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinjiang Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shandong Luneng are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 47% versus Meizhou Kejia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 66% | Meizhou Kejia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.90 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.841 / defence 0.667 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.665 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.392. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.841 — their λ of 2.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.667 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shandong Luneng games / 32 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Meizhou Kejia 5%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Meizhou Kejia 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Meizhou Kejia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Meizhou Kejia 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 44% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.90 / Meizhou Kejia 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.841 / def 0.667 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.665 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Meizhou Kejia xG
44%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 83% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.84) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.1%), 4-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
83%
1.20
12%
8.20
5%
21.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.1%
Home win
4 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.52
0.62
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.20
83%
Home win
8.20
12%
Draw
21.19
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
6%
18.17
Win to Nil
45%
2.23
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.62 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 32 games, going 23W 3D 6L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (13W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 13W 1D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.25 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 23W 3D 6L in their last 32 games (2.25 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 13W 7D 12L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.67 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 6, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shandong Luneng 33% BTTS, Meizhou Kejia 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shandong Luneng) and 40% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 40%; Meizhou Kejia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 20% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 40% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Meizhou Kejia 3-0 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.90 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.62 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.84 / defence 0.67 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.67 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Meizhou Kejia 5%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 66%, Meizhou Kejia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.