Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Huadu Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Championship Round - 4. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Huadu Stadium: 7W 1D 0L from 8 Super League appearances (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huadu Stadium.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shandong Luneng's favour (2.70 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 47% versus Changchun Yatai 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 53% | Changchun Yatai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.54 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.125 / defence 1.038 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.967 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shandong Luneng games / 14 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 41% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 30%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Changchun Yatai 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Changchun Yatai 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 41% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.54 / Changchun Yatai 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.125 / def 1.038 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.967 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Changchun Yatai xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 41% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.97x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.45
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.83
1.29
Changchun Yatai xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.29 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 17 games, going 13W 3D 1L for 2.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 7W 1D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.53 scored and 0.82 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Changchun Yatai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Changchun Yatai in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 13W 3D 1L in their last 17 games (2.47 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.75 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 50%, Changchun Yatai 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Shandong Luneng and 75% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shandong Luneng's games and 75% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 75% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Changchun Yatai 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Huadu Stadium, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.54 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.29 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 41% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 30%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 53%, Changchun Yatai 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.88. Form held, and they took the win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.