Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Qingdao Jonoon. A 0.50 PPG lead over Qingdao Youth Island (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Jonoon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Qingdao Youth Island in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 59% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 29% versus Qingdao Youth Island 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 35% | Qingdao Youth Island 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.97 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.885 / defence 1.290 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.749 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.349. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Qingdao Jonoon games / 17 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.00. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Qingdao Youth Island 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.97 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.885 / def 1.290 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.749 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Qingdao Youth Island xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 53% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.89) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.75x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.48
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.27
1.30
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
3%
28.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.30 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 4W 3D 10L from 17 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 10L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.76 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 0.94 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Jonoon have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.00 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Qingdao Youth Island 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 62% (Qingdao Youth Island). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 38% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.97 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.30 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.75 / defence 1.36, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 35%, Qingdao Youth Island 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.