Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium plays host to Nantong Zhiyun versus Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 14 June 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.09 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.736 / defence 1.131 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.842 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.419. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Nantong Zhiyun games / 14 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Draw 30% | Sichuan Jiuniu 41%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Draw 30% | Sichuan Jiuniu 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.09 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.736 / def 1.131 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.842 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 14 June 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 29% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nantong Zhiyun home split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.84x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
29%
3.51
30%
3.29
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.44
1.35
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.35 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 2 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sichuan Jiuniu edge out Nantong Zhiyun 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.09 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Draw 30% | Sichuan Jiuniu 41%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.