Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Shenzhen Ruby FC at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.25 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.745 / defence 1.042 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.233. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Nantong Zhiyun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Nantong Zhiyun games / 40 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Draw 34% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Draw 34% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.25 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.745 / def 1.042 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.021 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 31% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.74x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.92
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.31 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC finished level at 1-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.25 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.74 / defence 1.04 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Draw 34% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 34%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.