Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Nantong Zhiyun welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Qingdao Jonoon are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nantong Zhiyun trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 42% | Qingdao Jonoon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.12 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.559 / defence 1.175 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.800 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.342. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.559 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Nantong Zhiyun games / 55 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Jonoon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 40% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.12 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.559 / def 1.175 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.800 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Qingdao Jonoon xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Nantong Zhiyun 2 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 33% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating (0.56) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.59
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.38
1.26
Qingdao Jonoon xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.26 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 55 games, going 7W 16D 32L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.98 PPG from 55 outings (14W 12D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantong Zhiyun on 0.67 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 3W 7D 17L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.44 points per game from 27 outings (2W 6D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
The Goals Picture
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 16D 32L in their last 55 games (0.67 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Nantong Zhiyun's home record (0.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.59 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 44%, Qingdao Jonoon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nantong Zhiyun and 33% for Qingdao Jonoon.
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 44% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantong Zhiyun defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.12 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.26 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nantong Zhiyun beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.56 / defence 1.18 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Nantong Zhiyun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 42%, Qingdao Jonoon 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantong Zhiyun 0.67 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantong Zhiyun win broke the near-deadlock. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.