Meizhou Kejia 3-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Meizhou Kejia face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre plays host to Meizhou Kejia versus Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Meizhou Kejia have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Meizhou Kejia, 0.80 for Wuhan Three Towns — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns edge it 4 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Meizhou Kejia 1–0 Wuhan Three Towns — a Meizhou Kejia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Meizhou Kejia half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 62% and Wuhan Three Towns 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.69 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.174 / defence 1.180 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.672 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.558. Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 34 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 34.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 46% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.17 | Draw 3.60 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.83. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 46% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.69 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.174 / def 1.180 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.672 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.558 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Wuhan Three Towns xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Meizhou Kejia 3 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 46% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 1.17x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.67x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 34 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.60
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.92
1.24
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
5%
20.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.24 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 16D 29L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 22W 16D 22L from 60 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.37 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.37 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Meizhou Kejia have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 3-0 Meizhou Kejia on 21 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2025: Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Meizhou Kejia, 73% for Wuhan Three Towns — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 57% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 73% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 83% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-1 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.69 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.24 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.67 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 46% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.