Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Shandong Luneng to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (18 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (18 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 56% versus Shandong Luneng 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 50% | Shandong Luneng 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.42 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.281 / defence 0.967 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.418 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.283. Meizhou Kejia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Meizhou Kejia games / 32 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 45%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 2.22. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Shandong Luneng 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.42 / Shandong Luneng 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.281 / def 0.967 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.418 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Shandong Luneng xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 30% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 1.28x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
30%
3.32
25%
3.95
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.18
1.76
Shandong Luneng xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
5%
19.32
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.76 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 8W 6D 4L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 14W 1D 3L from 18 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 8W 0D 3L from 11 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.17 scored and 0.72 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Meizhou Kejia's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 14W 1D 3L in their last 18 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.91 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
6
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 73%, Shandong Luneng 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Meizhou Kejia and 64% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 46% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 64% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Meizhou Kejia 1-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.42 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.76 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.42 / defence 0.82, drawn from 18/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 45%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 50%, Shandong Luneng 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (18 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (18 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.