Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's home record at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 1W, Dalian Aerbin 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 54% versus Dalian Aerbin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | Dalian Aerbin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.87 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.161 / defence 1.045 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.781 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.202. Data: 52 Meizhou Kejia games / 52 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 56% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 17%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Aerbin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Dalian Aerbin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 56% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.87 / Dalian Aerbin 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.161 / def 1.045 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.781 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dalian Aerbin xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 56% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.16) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.78x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.78
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.85
0.98
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
37.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 0.98 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 18W 11D 23L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 20L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.15 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 12W 4D 9L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 18W 11D 23L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.60 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 64%, Dalian Aerbin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Meizhou Kejia) and 56% (Dalian Aerbin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 48% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 56% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Dalian Aerbin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.87 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.98 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 56% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 17%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, Dalian Aerbin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.25 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.