Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Beijing Guoan to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.21 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.858 / defence 1.140 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.187 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.160. Data: 3 Meizhou Kejia games / 17 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 29% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 45%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Beijing Guoan 2.22. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 29% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.21 / Beijing Guoan 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.858 / def 1.140 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.187 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Beijing Guoan xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 17 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 29% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Beijing Guoan away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
29%
3.51
27%
3.75
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.78
1.57
Beijing Guoan xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.57 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.21 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.57 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.19 / defence 1.11, drawn from 3/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 29% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 45%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.